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EU electricity supply from RES off course for 2030 – so is it more nuclear or gas?

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EU electricity supply from RES off course for 2030 – so is it more nuclear or gas?

by Tom Idle and Matthew James

January 15, 2019

Last year’s strong reported performances for the share of clean energy in the UK and German energy mixes paint a rosy picture. It is the result of billions in investment and strong signals from Brussels and the COP series. Looking more broadly across the EU though, the share actually decreased by 17% from 2016 to 2017. Furthermore, due to lack of investment stretching back as far as 2011, the rate of growth has dropped significantly putting RES off course for its 32% share by 2030. That, coupled with a substantial increase in electricity demand on the near horizon, leaves an even bigger gap for other technologies like nuclear and gas – even existing coal – to fill.

Power generated by renewables topped coal in Germany for first time in 2018, an important milestone for its clean energy policy. Also in 2018, 40% of its electricity was generated by wind, solar, biomass and hydroelectric sources – up 4.3 percentage points on the previous year. With the substantial increase in demand that’s expected in coming years stimulated by the transition to EVs that’s great news.

Data from the Fraunhofer research group shows that the majority of clean power came from onshore and offshore wind systems (20.4% of total output) and solar (8.4%), the installed capacity of which expanded by 3.2 gigawatts (GW) to 45.5GW last year.

Bruno Burger, author of the Fraunhofer study, said: “We will not fall below the 40% in 2019 because more renewable installations are being built and weather patterns will not change that dramatically.” Whilst a fair conclusion, it does not show how this will be maintained in the longer term bearing in mind how much more electricity will be needed.

And in the United Kingdom…

It is a similar situation in the UK where overall power generation fell to its lowest level since 1994. A third of electricity came from renewables in 2018. Wind (accounting for 17% of the total power generated), solar (4%) and the burning of plant material and biomass (11%) are taking an increasing share of the overall power mix. Low-carbon supplies (including nuclear) made up a record 53% of the total in 2018.

Wind power capacity was up 16% on 2017, producing some 58 terawatt hours of electricity – nearly 3.5 times as much as the 17TWh coming from coal. In fact, coal now makes up a record low of just 5% of the UK’s total energy production, with gas use also down to 39%.

As you can see in the graph, the sharp decline in coal is being matched by growth in electricity from gas since 2015. Mitigated by a strong performance by wind. To continue development of clean energy supply and use, wind will have to perform even better as demand increases over the next decade stimulated by increased popularity of electric heating and vehicles especially. Otherwise the UKs reliance on gas will only become even heavier. Of course, nuclear should play a major role here, unlike Germany, but it is predicted that the UK will need 3 Hinkley C-type plants, not one, to meet demand. And Hinkley C has still not come online.

Portugal, Sweden and Latvia performing well

Elsewhere in Europe, Portugal managed to produce more renewable electricity than it consumed in early 2018 and now predicts renewables (solar mainly) will satisfy its mainland electricity needs by 2040.

Within the EU, the top countries measured in terms of the share of energy from renewable sources measured as a percentage of gross final energy consumption are Sweden, Finland and Latvia, the Baltic state having invested heavily in biofuels, biogas, and hydropower.

Elsewhere in the EU28

It is a mixed picture across the rest of the continent and there is a danger that these pockets of good news are masking the reality that the rate of renewables deployment is faltering. Across the EU, renewable energy production share continues to vary widely between countries – from more than 30% of gross final energy consumption in places like Austria, Finland, Denmark, Latvia and Sweden to below 9% in the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg and Malta.

The amount of clean energy being produced within the EU-28 increased overall by 66.6% between 2006 and 2016 – an average rate of increase of 5.3% a year. However, by 2016, the latest year for which data is available, the share of renewables in gross final energy consumption across Europe stood at just 17%.

Yes, such a trajectory is likely to see the EU meet its 2020 goal of producing 20% of total power by renewables. But the pace of new capacity being deployed has certainly slowed in recent years. According to European Environment Agency estimates, with the share of renewables has only increased marginally – from 17.0 % to 17.4 % – between 2016 and 2017.

To get to the 2030 goal of producing 32% of power from clean energy will demand a much greater effort, with constant annual deployment increases of around 1.2 percentage points a year between now and then. That’s almost twice the 0.7 percentage points growth rate seen between 2005 and 2016.

“Meeting the 2030 goal of producing 32% of power from clean energy demands constant annual deployment increases of around 1.2 percentage points – much greater than the 0.7 percentage points growth rate seen between 2005 and 2016″

Drop in investment

While Germany and the UK appear to be keeping pace with their Scandinavian and Baltic neighbours at the moment it is not a trend that is likely to continue. The two largest economies showed a sharp decrease in overall clean energy investment in 2017 – 26% and 56% drops respectively.

Cost of renewable tech keeps falling

Globally, renewables, and solar in particular, have become phenomenally cheap in recent years, driven by oversupply from China. This could ensure these forecasts are met. However, the EU’s antidumping legislation – the protectionist tariff domestic governments impose on foreign imports said to be priced below fair market value – has seen many countries failing to benefit from cheap Chinese renewables technology and falling prices. Although the European Commission has moved to scrap such tariffs, this has already hampered solar deployment efforts in particular.

Maybe the UK’s exit from the EU could be an opportunity for them to build new trade deals with the Chinese to help speed up deployment but that’s no consolation for the other 27

Meeting the 2030 goal will require investment of around €62 billion a year according to the International Renewable Energy Agency (Irena). But European investment in renewables is in decline. Data from Bloomberg New Energy Finance shows that investment in renewables in the EU fell 50% between 2011 and 2017, to €46 billion. “In Europe right now we have the lowest investment in over a decade,” says Stefan Gsänger, general secretary of the World Wind Energy Association. To compare, investment in renewables in China, with ready access to its own, cheap technology, hit $126.6 billion (€110.5 billion) in 2017, its highest figure ever and no less than 45% of the global total.

Investment in renewables in the EU fell 50% between 2011 and 2017

Mind the gap

According to International Energy Agency (IEA) predictions, European energy production from coal is set to more than halve by 2040 – from 237 megatonne of coal equivalent (Mtce) in 2017, to 93 Mtce. There are similar predictions for oil (from 4 million barrels per day, to 3), and natural gas (from 291 billion cubic metres (bcm), to 203 bcm).

Despite evidence published by the Energy Watch Group and LUT University demonstrating that it is possible for Europe to transition to being powered 100% by renewables by 2050 and that it would create more jobs and be more cost effective than the present fossil fuel-led system, the squeeze on national economies is stopping Governments from persuading voters that investment in new infrastructure is in their interest. It warns “the energy transition is not a question of technical feasibility or economic viability, but one of political will” to the extent that even its own share targets is under threat as things stand.

The move away from coal is exactly what’s prescribed. It makes it unavoidable that other technologies and sources of energy will be brought in to replace it but what and how is far from clear. Demand will not stay static for long and the increase will be sharp. The transition to electric vehicles on its own will see to that. Without renewed investment in renewables infrastructure – capacity, integration techniques and storage – we cannot expect the sector to meet the 32% share target. Instead, we will be relying even more heavily on nuclear and gas to meet our targets. It makes the cases for both worth examining very carefully.

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Related articles:

January 14, 2019 by Matt Wald Nuclear – critical choice for 2050

December 13, 2018 by Gaurav Sharma Opposition to Nord Stream 2 misses market fundamentals

More background

Transformation of Europe’s Power System (McKinsey report) 

 

2030 GHG targets: more needs to be done to align action and policy with climate science

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EU COP24 commitments: more needs to be done to align action and policy with climate science

by Luca Bergamaschi
December 20, 2018

As the dust settles after the 24th UN climate conference (COP24) successfully delivered the “rulebook” of the Paris Agreement, European Commission officials head back to Brussels knowing they deliver the best possible outcome. Despite geopolitical tensions, all Governments – especially the EU and China – showed their determination to multilateral cooperation on climate. Luca Bergamaschi of climate think-tank E3G, just back from Katowice, reports from Brussels.

While finalising the rulebook is an achievement in itself given the current geopolitical environment, countries were not prepared to send a clear signal towards scaling up action in response to the stark warning from the latest scientific report on the impacts of 1.5 degree of global warming. Even within Europe there is a deepening divide between progressive Member States, such as France and The Netherlands, demanding increased efforts to cut greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions and those determined to defend the status quo, such as Germany and Poland.

To maintain its international climate leadership and credibility, especially vis-à-vis the most vulnerable countries, next year the EU will need to signal that its domestic commitments and strategy are aligned with the scientific evidence. This will be key to arrive at COP26 in 2020 with a strong European offer in the form of an increased Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC, equivalent to the EU 2030 GHG target) and a Paris-compatible long term strategy. The two key meetings to do so in 2019 will be the European Council on the Future of Europe in May 2019 in Sibiu and the UN Secretary General’s Climate Summit on 23 September in New York.

What happened in Poland

Countries agreed most of the implementing rules of the Paris Agreement overcoming initial challenges posed by fossil fuels producing countries. The negotiations went in overtime but eventually they all agreed a common set of rules for preparing, monitoring, taking stock and comparing climate pledges. These rules are applicable to all countries but allow developing countries a few years more to fulfil all rules, while receiving support through capacity building. Also, the rules provide clear guidance for countries to take stock of, and subsequently enhance, their pledges every 5 years by assessing progress towards the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement and financial support (including for losses and damages caused by climate change).

Only one decision was postponed to next year. This was on the design of market mechanisms for carbon reductions (Article 6 of the Paris Agreement) that do not compromise environmental integrity, for example through double counting of emissions reductions. This will now be negotiated at a later stage as Brazil, a potentially large provider of carbon credits to the market from its large forest resources, could not agree.

While shared, universally-applicable rules are a necessary condition for international cooperation, they are no substitute for increased climate action, as current national commitments on emission reduction are not sufficient to bridge the growing emissions gap in 2030. If left unchanged, current commitments would lead on average to over 3 degree of warming by the end of the century.

At COP24 countries failed to clearly signal their intention to update their national commitments against the warnings of the IPCC report on 1.5 degree. And yet even the IPCC report might be underestimating critical climate risks. This is the message delivered by Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Director Emeritus of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, during arguably the most important side event in Katowice.

In fact, the IPCC might be depicting a too rosy picture of the earth system. Even delivering the Paris Agreement temperature targets, we might activate a cascade of “tipping elements” – the vital organs of the earth system, such as the Greenland and West Antarctica ice sheets – that would turn the world into a hothouse earth and lead to unmanageable sea level rises.

The most critical issue is the non-linearity of climate change and the synchronicity of extreme weather events around the world, which could cause a cascade of irreversible change. In light of these new findings, a key task of European policy makers – especially for the next Commission – is to better understand these risks and how to effectively respond in order to build adequate resilience and protect all Europeans especially those most exposed, such as in Southern Europe.

European diplomacy works

Reaching the agreement was a success of European diplomacy often in partnership with the most vulnerable countries. The EU played an important role as bridge-builder between countries by acknowledging the key role finance plays in enhancing emission reductions. The EU and others made sure that that greater predictability of financial support is enshrined in the rulebook which reassured developing countries and created trust among them.

Importantly, the EU alone has pledged a voluntary contribution of €10 million for the Adaptation Fund. This was an important signal of solidarity towards key European allies, especially the most vulnerable countries. The EU also brought together the High Ambition Coalition, including 12 Member States, to make a clear statement about their priorities for the rulebook, which helped putting pressure on the final hours of negotiations.

European non-state and business actors also played a key role for increasing European leadership. 45 European business, investors, cities and regions launched the initiative Step Up Now, showcasing the climate action they are undertaking already and calling on EU countries to commit to net-zero emissions by 2050 as well as to adjust the 2030 targets. This new coalition is expected to grow over the next few months in the run-up to the Future of Europe summit in May 2019. At the same time, London Mayor Khan unveiled his plan to tackle the climate emergency and become carbon neutral by 2030, the Danish Maersk – the world’s largest container shipping company – is the first global shipping company to set itself a target of becoming CO2 neutral by 2050 and Volkswagen committed to roll out its last petrol and diesel model in 2026.

Unsurprisingly, coal received special attention throughout the whole conference. Three thousand people marching in Katowice asked the same thing as global investors managing $32 trillion worth of assets: a quicker exit from coal. Progressive Polish Mayors issued a declaration in favour of climate policies and major new actors joined the Powering Past Coal Alliance – the first global alliance working to advance to transition away from unabated coal – including Scotland whose wind power broke the 100% output for the first time in December. And Greta Thunberg, a young Swedish teenager who inspired school strikes to protest against climate inacation all around the world, was the rising star both inside and outside the conference.

Aligning financial flows with the Paris Agreement is proving instead more challenging. While the European Bank for Regional Development (EBRD) committed to phasing out direct coal financing, it is failing to tackle its significant investments in gas infrastructure. The positions of the EU Council and the Parliament on the next EU budget do not yet signal a clear trend away from fossil fuel investment. The biggest risks of new gas investment are ending up as stranded assets or locking in emissions.

Opportunities in 2019

At the latest European Council (13-14 December), European Heads of State confirmed that Member States will respond to the recently published long-term strategy presented by the European Commission in more detail in the first half of 2019. This will be the first opportunity for aligning the EU long term strategy to climate science, in particular to 1.5 degree, and responding to increasing demand from the majority of businesses and citizens for enhanced climate action. This will require to set a target of net-zero GHG emissions by 2050 at the latest. Ideally, Heads of State will also discuss what this means for 2030 targets. New analysis shows that reaching net-zero by 2050 requires raising the 2030 ambition level to 55-65%.

In the run-up to the Future of Europe Summit, governments could use the next months to find consensus towards a net-zero emissions goal by 2050 and new 2030 GHG target (which corresponds to the European NDC) through discussing what this means for industry competitiveness, finance, infrastructure, social policies and innovation. The recently published report presented at COP24 by the EU Commission’s DG Research and Innovation on decarbonisation pathways could support this effort. Its recommendations include:

  1. the need for sustained Research and Innovation activities on decarbonisation across all sectors, including a robust programme on climate change science;
  2. the establishment of large mission-oriented programmes of a cross-cutting nature for the deployment of system-level transdisciplinary innovation;
  3. the development of partnerships with industry to address together the most difficult aspects of decarbonisation, on which industry alone would not invest enough and with the necessary urgency;
  4. and the launch of Transition Super-Labs, very-large-territory initiatives of real-life management of the transition from typical fossil-fuel-based local economies to zero-carbon ones.

This discussion and the agreement for an ambitious, long term climate-neutral target would allow the EU, and the current European Commission, to respond to the shortcoming of COP24 and use the Sibiu Summit to define its legacy on the Paris Agreement, ensuring that climate change will be a high priority for the next European Commission. This will of course depend on the formation of the next European Parliament. The political discussion on climate change during the electoral campaign will also be key to shape how Heads of State will respond to it in May.

“from now on, my five priorities will be: Ambition in mitigation. Ambition in adaptation. Ambition in finance. Ambition in technical cooperation and capacity building. Ambition in technological innovation” UNSG, Antonio Guterres

If Heads of State can provide guidance on the long term strategy while committing to a higher European NDC, this would allow for a concerted diplomatic effort for higher ambition with China and Canada to be agreed at the next Ministerial on Climate Action (date to be determined but presumably in the first quarter of 2019). This would inject much needed global leadership and prepare higher pledges to be announced at the UN Secretary General’s Climate Summit on 23 September in New York. This will be the most important international meeting on climate change during 2019 where countries are invited to make new national commitments – the missing element of COP24. In the words of UNSG Antonio Guterres, “from now on, my five priorities will be: Ambition in mitigation. Ambition in adaptation. Ambition in finance. Ambition in technical cooperation and capacity building. Ambition in technological innovation”.

A lot of work needs to be done to overcome the current divide inside Europe between progressive and less progressive Member States. The upcoming recommendations of the new Coal Commission in Germany could trigger a rethink and a repositioning of Germany, opening up the possibility of increasing the 2030 GHG target and organise more pressure on Central and Easter European countries, in particular on Poland. It will require a strategic offer to persuade them to move towards accepting higher targets by 2030. The next six months are therefore key to achieve this.

Conclusion

After COP24 the focus shifts to domestic processes and partnerships to keep the promise of the Paris Agreement alive through enhanced climate efforts. The EU is now expected to act as the global pacesetter on increasing NDCs ahead of the 2020 deadline. The EU can count on the support of a broad set of governmental, non-state and business actors. They provide the basis for discussing the range of actions needed to increase ambitions and in doing so to keep a chance of avoiding the most dangerous levels of climate change.

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Luca Bergamaschi is Senior Associate on climate and energy diplomacy at climate think-tank E3G

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Buildings emissions 2050: triple renovations rate today, avoid stress tomorrow

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ENERGY WATCH #1 - December 20, 2018

Buildings emissions 2050: triple renovations rate today, avoid unnecessary stress tomorrow

by Arasan Aruliah

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Buildings are responsible for 39% of total energy-related global emissions. More action is required from governments, cities and business if the buildings and construction sector is to reach net zero by 2050. Renovations to existing stock are vital but at the current rate of 1% we won’t get there – it needs to triple. Any delay in upping the rate will just increase pressure on the sector down the line. EPW takes a look at what hurdles must be overcome to make it happen.

According to a new report released at COP24 by the Global Alliance for Buildings and Construction,  some progress has been made. Their 2018 Global Status Report – Towards a Zero-Emission, Efficient and Resilient Buildings and Construction Sector emphasises that emissions from buildings and construction have peaked, thanks to energy efficiency gains in areas such as heating, lighting and cooking, and with more offices and homes being powered by cleaner forms of energy. Shifts towards energy saving technologies like heat pumps, improved windows and insulation, the use of less energy-intensive materials, and buildings design, are all paying off.

However, the report underlines that the buildings sector – a huge engine of the global economy – still accounts for a significant 39% of total energy-related CO2 emissions and 36% of final energy use. Net zero by 2050 is still a long way away.

The report was written in collaboration with the International Energy Agency (IEA) and UN Environment. Dr Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the IEA, warns: “Developments within the sector such as the growing uptake of air conditioners are having a big impact on energy and environmental trends at the global level… If we don’t make buildings more efficient, their rising energy use will impact us all, whether it be through access to affordable energy services, poor air quality or higher energy bills.” In other words, the global growth in buildings and population is outpacing the gains from energy efficiency improvements, meaning final energy demand in buildings has risen by 5% since 2010 (Figure 2).

Efficiency gains across the board, except in space cooling

Energy intensity per unit of floor area is another way of measuring energy efficiency. The data shows that space heating and lighting have improved the most since 2010 (Figure 3). The shift to energy‐efficient technologies, such as light‐emitting diodes (LEDs) and heat pumps in some markets, has played a role in those energy intensity improvements. Building envelope measures have also helped to improve heating and cooling energy intensities per square metre, through improved thermal performance (e.g. material choice) and better building design and orientation. All this has helped overcome growth in population and increases in wealth to achieve important energy savings per floor area in recent years. In fact, only space cooling has grown in energy intensity per unit floor area.

Emissions are levelling off, but that’s not good enough

Buildings sector emissions appear to have stabilised at around 9.5 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (GtCO2) annually in 2015‐17, or 28% of the global energy‐related CO2 emissions. When energy‐related emissions from buildings construction (i.e. manufacturing of building materials) are included, total buildings‐related CO2 emissions amounted to more than 11 GtCO2 in 2017, or 39% of the global energy‐related emissions. That also remains unchanged from 2016. “This is potentially an indicator that buildings sector emissions have capped, but they are still well below the necessary reductions to achieve the global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs),” says the report.

Energy efficiency investment in buildings is slowing

More investment is needed. Total energy efficiency spending for buildings increased by 4.1% (2.5% adjusted for inflation) in 2017 to $423bn (Figure 9). That means it slightly outpaced the 3‐4% annual growth rate of the total investment in buildings construction and renovation, but that is still a slowdown when compared to the 6‐11% annual growth rates in energy efficiency spending from 2014 to 2016. And whatever the growth rate, energy efficiency remains a small portion of the overall spending on buildings.

Europe has the tools, we’re just not using them

Net zero by 2050 is a steep hill to climb for the world, and that includes Europe. But the tools to succeed are already available, according to a study commissioned by Eurima, the European Insulation Manufacturers’ Association. The study looks at all the opportunities, including the building envelope (efficient design and insulation of roofs, walls, floor, windows), heating and control systems, and renewable energy heating solutions. Eurima Director General, Jan te Bos, says “solutions that are already commercially available can take us 75% of the way to net zero, if deployed at scale. The remaining 25% can be achieved based on known approaches and technologies, if efforts to scale up and commercialise are made.”

The message is slowly getting through. For new builds, France’s building code requires all new construction to fall under its definition of an nZEB (nearly zero-energy buildings). In Austria, Belgium and Italy, more than 20% of residential new constructions in 2017 were nZEBs. For renovations, Denmark’s renovation rates are between 1.5%–2%, well above the EU average, but still not high enough: the Eurima study concludes that 3% of buildings need to be renovated every year, up from just 1% today, for the EU to reach net zero.

Residential buildings hold the key

A report by Climate Action Tracker (CAT), published in November, identifies residential buildings as one of three areas (the other two are electricity supply, and passenger road transport) the EU should focus on to scale up climate action to meet the Paris targets. “The reductions in these three sectors alone are enough to reduce EU28 total greenhouse gas emissions by up to 52% below 1990 levels in 2030,” says their report. But following the current trend in reducing buildings emissions won’t reduce them to zero. Even following the “best in class” nations, like Denmark, will only get us half way there. The report concludes: “Paris Agreement-compatibility requires the renovation rate of the building sector to increase significantly from the current 1%—ideally to around 5%—with the energy demand per square meter decreasing by between 75% and 100%.”

The policies are being put in place

In the summer of this year the EU amended and strengthened the Energy Performance in Buildings Directive (EPBD). EuroACE heralded it as a big step forward. EuroACE is the European Alliance of Companies for Energy Efficiency in Buildings, with members ranging across the commercial buildings sector. In November they published their “EuroACE Guide to EPBD Implementation” to help decision-makers understand and take action following the new rules.

The detailed guide is specifically targeted at the government officials in the EU Member States and “stakeholders in the whole construction value chain from the owner, through the design teams to the site and to all associations that represent this value chain.“

EuroACE Secretary General Adrian Joyce said: “[The new EPBD] is one of the most important changes that has occurred in the EU buildings sector in the last 15 years. At last, EU legislators have recognised that our biggest problems are not the standards we use for our new buildings but the ones we use to renovate our existing ones. “

In 2005, total energy consumption in the EU was around 1,800 million tonnes of oil equivalent (mtoe). So, by hitting the new EPDB targets alone the EU can reduce overall energy consumption by 360mtoe by 2050. At the same time, given most of the energy used in buildings comes from burning fossil fuels, particularly gas for heating, the EU can reduce its reliance on imported gas by around 60%.

“Just treating the building sector will reduce energy demand in the overall economy by 32% if we achieve our goals,” says Joyce. In fact, this sector is ripe for rapid transition. Joyce concludes: “The Buildings sector is the most readily accessible for achieving dramatic cuts in emissions”.

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Shipping’s decarbonisation forecast: cloudy, but bright spells expected for the future

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ENERGY WATCH #1 - December 7, 2018

Shipping’s decarbonisation forecast: cloudy, but bright spells expected for the future

by Matthew James

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The International Maritime Organisation has joined the race to net zero emissions. The decarbonisation of shipping, especially for long-haul marine transportation, remains one of the biggest challenges facing the energy and business community. Innovation in infrastructure, technology and new fuel solutions all need to play their part in setting the maritime transport sector on the right course.

The maritime sector was always a “green pioneer”. That was down to submarine technology. Early submarine engines were part battery powered (nuclear came much later). Even before World War 1 all the major powers had submarines. So they can claim to be the first to prioritise battery power and come to grips with the struggles of minimising weight and size. So what went wrong?

Today, shipping is one of the largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitting sectors of the global economy, responsible for around 1 Gt of CO2eq every year. EU shipping is responsible for 1/5 of those emissions. If shipping were a country, it would be the 6th biggest GHG emitter. And there are other problems completing a pretty black environmental picture.

The umbrella NGO, Transport & Environment (T&E) has recently produced a pretty pessimistic report which gives the impression that (apart from smaller inland and coastal marine transport) shipping will keep churning out more and more CO2 long into the second half of the century. T&E’s Faig Abbasov describes shipping as the neglected child of the transport sector, alluding to the fact that until now, shipping has not been subject to the same scrutiny and intense regulatory pressure as other sectors. But significantly, the report assumes that larger vessels will struggle to go low-carbon. The ocean going tanker and cargo fleets are the worst emitters. That means design efficiencies and speed-capping must play a part in reducing emissions on big boats.

If shipping carries on ‘as is’ the International Council on Clean Transportation warns sea transport could be responsible for 17% of all CO2 emissions by 2050. The International Maritime Organisation (IMO), the UN agency responsible for regulating shipping, quotes figures that show some progress: 796 million tonnes of CO2 emissions in 2012 (an improvement on 2007). Not bad considering that shipping falls into the “difficult to decarbonise” category. But that drop was helped by a decade of stagnant growth in key economies. IMO regulations mean the shipping industry has to adopt alternative fuel sources to achieve more and faster progress.

[Graph taken from DNV GL Energy Transition Outlook 2018: Maritime Forecast to 2050]

IMO strategy

In April this year the IMO adopted an initial greenhouse gas (GHG) strategy for international shipping. Called the “Initial IMO Strategy on Reduction of GHG emissions from ships”, it says: “The Initial Strategy envisages for the first time a reduction in total GHG emissions from international shipping which… should peak as soon as possible and to reduce the total annual GHG emissions by at least 50% by 2050 compared to 2008, while, at the same time, pursuing efforts towards phasing them out entirely.”

The IMO also includes rules on ship design “to strengthen the energy efficiency design requirements for ships [to achieve] reduction of CO2 emissions per transport work by at least 40% by 2030, and 70% by 2050”. That sets a clear target for the shipping engineers to sit down with those at the forefront of the renewable energy industry, find some answers and launch those new ships.

Which alternative fuels are best?

T&E concludes that “a mix of alternative zero emission technologies including battery-electric, liquid hydrogen and ammonia would cause the least additional strain on the broader energy system. Synthetic fuels such as electro-methane and electro-diesel, on the other hand, would be the least optimal and also extremely difficult to monitor and enforce.”